PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ndb1

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$4.2MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate72.5%654 settled · past 90 days367 open · 95% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$114.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded697Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+16.6% / $95% interval −4.1% to +37.2%484 settled fills · 90d window
Unmapped
+44.8%n=30 settled
Finance
+37.7%n=15 settled
Sports
+11.3%n=437 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 72.5% · Decided 654 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$1.1M
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1M
Concentration
20.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
367
Showing the largest 8 of 367
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
NoValue$230KPnL−$34.4KAvg70.7¢Current61.5¢373,914.01Shares
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
NoValue$195.4KPnL−$2.3KAvg78.4¢Current77.5¢252,166.59Shares
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$87.6KPnL+$3.1KAvg95.7¢Current99.2¢88,343.61Shares
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$83.3KPnL+$5.9KAvg90.4¢Current97.3¢85,633.83Shares
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$81.4KPnL+$4.2KAvg85.7¢Current90.4¢90,068.56Shares
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
NoValue$51.6KPnL+$9.6KAvg76.3¢Current93.8¢55,000Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$41.8KPnL+$1.1KAvg94.5¢Current97.2¢43,049.38Shares
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$39.9KPnL+$1.4KAvg96¢Current99.5¢40,115.5Shares
Showing 8 of 367 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ndb1: 72.5% win rate over 654 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +16.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −4.1%, n=484 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+37.7% over 15 fills); +$4.2M lifetime P&L, $114.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.