PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

Espagan

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…0 open · 1 month ago
Lifetime volume$172K285 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded114Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−15.9% / $95% interval −445.1% to +413.4%25 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−17.3%n=18 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
12
Showing the largest 8 of 12
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$1Avg1¢Current0¢100Shares
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$10Avg0.4¢Current0¢2,839.17Shares
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$158Avg82.4¢Current0¢192.03Shares
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$111Avg10.5¢Current0¢1,059.82Shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
NoValue$0PnL−$95Avg93.8¢Current0¢101.28Shares
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$111Avg10.5¢Current0¢1,059.82Shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$111Avg10.5¢Current0¢1,059.82Shares
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$70Avg17.4¢Current0¢401.77Shares
Showing 8 of 12 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Espagan: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −15.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −445.1%, n=25 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−17.3% over 18 fills); −$2K lifetime P&L, $172K traded, updated 2026-09-22.