PolyTrace
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Trader profile

surf

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$31.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…7 open · 76% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$28.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded507Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−31.5% / $95% interval −225.1% to +162.1%58 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−9.4%n=32 settled
Finance
−43.6%n=23 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$362.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.1M
Concentration
27.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
153
Showing the largest 8 of 153
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Max Holloway · YesValue$100KPnL+$30KAvg70¢Current100¢99,999.81Shares
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?
NoValue$87.2KPnL+$3.2KAvg96.3¢Current100¢87,222.35Shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
YesValue$41.5KPnL+$35KAvg15.6¢Current100¢41,485.48Shares
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
NoValue$30KPnL+$270Avg99.1¢Current100¢30,000Shares
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals
NoValue$24.8KPnL+$9.1KAvg63.1¢Current100¢24,759.01Shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
YesValue$22KPnL+$14.9KAvg32.3¢Current100¢22,028.61Shares
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
NoValue$14.8KPnL+$733Avg95.1¢Current100¢14,810.68Shares
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
NoValue$12.7KPnL+$11.3KAvg11¢Current100¢12,704.98Shares
Showing 8 of 153 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet surf: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −31.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −225.1%, n=58 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−9.4% over 32 fills); +$31.2K lifetime P&L, $28.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.