PolyTrace
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Trader profile

AML

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$605.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate40.5%42 settled · past 180 days4 open · 41% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$15.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded44Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−6.9% / $95% interval −125.5% to +111.7%28 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−6.9%n=28 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 40.5% · Decided 42 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$31.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$432.4K
Concentration
87.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
11
Showing the largest 8 of 11
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$27.9KPnL+$2KAvg19¢Current20.5¢136,079.4Shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
YesValue$3.8KPnL−$1.5KAvg9¢Current6.5¢58,540.89Shares
Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
YesValue$163PnL+$81Avg45¢Current89.4¢181.96Shares
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
YesValue$63PnL+$3Avg3¢Current3.2¢2,000.19Shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?
YesValue$0PnL−$67.6KAvg42.5¢Current0¢159,000Shares
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Conor McGregor · NoValue$0PnL−$203.8KAvg34¢Current0¢599,998.16Shares
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$0PnL−$80.2KAvg53.4¢Current0¢149,999.91Shares
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$0PnL−$6KAvg3¢Current0¢200,000Shares
Showing 8 of 11 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AML: 40.5% win rate over 42 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −6.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −125.5%, n=28 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−6.9% over 28 fills); −$605.3K lifetime P&L, $15.8M traded, updated 2026-09-21.