PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0xfbd8…4027

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$178.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate28.2%68,098 settled · past 90 days1,391 open · >99% underwater · 16 hours ago
Lifetime volume$19.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded5,544Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−39.9% / $95% interval −506.9% to +427.1%85 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−29.9%n=21 settled
Politics
−36.3%n=57 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 28.2% · Decided 68,098 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded16 hours ago
Current position value
$226
Snapshot cash PnL
−$10.2K
Concentration
12%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,540
Showing the largest 8 of 1,540
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will someone else give the next White House press briefing?
YesValue$27PnL+$27Avg1.5¢Current100¢27Shares
Will someone else win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year?
YesValue$10PnL+$10Avg2.7¢Current100¢10Shares
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$3PnL−$203Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢6,600.5Shares
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$3PnL−$203Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢6,600.5Shares
Will Team C win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
YesValue$3PnL−$269Avg4.2¢Current0.1¢6,538Shares
Will Tencent have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$3PnL−$195Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢6,334Shares
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$3PnL−$194Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢6,294Shares
Will StepFun have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$3PnL−$194Avg3.1¢Current0.1¢6,294Shares
Showing 8 of 1,540 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0xfbd8c9c22ca76b3662d0e53a4f79719fdc684027: 28.2% win rate over 68,098 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −39.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −506.9%, n=85 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−29.9% over 21 fills); +$178.5K lifetime P&L, $19.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.