PolyTrace
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Trader profile

thecomplicatedguy

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$397KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate40.2%199 settled · past 90 days0 open · 1 month ago
Lifetime volume$3.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded202Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.8% / $95% interval −11.6% to +19.2%326 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+3.5%n=323 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 40.2% · Decided 199 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded13 hours ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$301.4K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
29
Showing the largest 8 of 29
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group
Gen.G Global Academy · YesValue$0PnL−$3.6KAvg30¢Current0¢11,999.97Shares
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
KT Rolster · NoValue$0PnL−$11.5KAvg28.7¢Current0¢40,000Shares
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds · NoValue$0PnL−$12.9KAvg49.6¢Current0¢25,999.88Shares
Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5
Under · NoValue$0PnL−$18KAvg50¢Current0¢36,000Shares
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers · NoValue$0PnL−$40.6KAvg55.7¢Current0¢72,881.24Shares
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Red Sox · YesValue$0PnL−$10.2KAvg51¢Current0¢20,000Shares
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs
T1 · YesValue$0PnL−$10.8KAvg39.2¢Current0¢27,544.59Shares
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group
T1 · YesValue$0PnL−$8.6KAvg34.4¢Current0¢25,000Shares
Showing 8 of 29 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet thecomplicatedguy: 40.2% win rate over 199 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +3.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −11.6%, n=326 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+3.5% over 323 fills); −$397K lifetime P&L, $3.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.