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Trader profile

nedsta

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$29.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate90.6%159 settled · past 180 days19 open · 7% underwater · 23 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded469Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−25.4% / $95% interval −390.2% to +339.4%131 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−25.8%n=129 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 90.6% · Decided 159 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded23 hours ago
Current position value
$132.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$17.1K
Concentration
11.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
24
Showing the largest 8 of 24
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
NoValue$15.5KPnL+$408Avg93.9¢Current96.4¢16,117.98Shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?
YesValue$15.5KPnL+$1.4KAvg90.6¢Current99.5¢15,576.53Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$15.5KPnL+$1.3KAvg78.5¢Current85.5¢18,122Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NoValue$15.3KPnL+$1.3KAvg91.1¢Current99.3¢15,452.21Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
YesValue$12.2KPnL+$1KAvg87.8¢Current95.8¢12,690.19Shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
NoValue$11.7KPnL+$1.6KAvg75.8¢Current87.5¢13,420.08Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$11.2KPnL+$1.9KAvg77.6¢Current93.5¢11,946.09Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$8.7KPnL−$614Avg77.1¢Current72¢12,038.1Shares
Showing 8 of 24 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet nedsta: 90.6% win rate over 159 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −25.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −390.2%, n=131 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−25.8% over 129 fills); +$29.9K lifetime P&L, $3.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.