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Trader profile

MrMarket

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$16KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate49%535 settled · past 180 days167 open · 51% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$8.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded373Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−34.4% / $95% interval −447.7% to +378.9%24 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−18.1%n=15 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 49% · Decided 535 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$82.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$70.5K
Concentration
22.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
413
Showing the largest 8 of 413
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
NoValue$18.7KPnL+$2KAvg88.1¢Current98.5¢19,044.98Shares
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?
NoValue$14.8KPnL+$2.1KAvg63.4¢Current74¢20,032.17Shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$6.8KPnL−$3KAvg2.4¢Current1.7¢412,597.08Shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$5.8KPnL+$3.2KAvg8.4¢Current18.3¢32,042.91Shares
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026?
NoValue$4.3KPnL+$221Avg89.1¢Current94¢4,539.66Shares
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$2KPnL−$120Avg36¢Current34¢6,016.1Shares
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$1.8KPnL−$34Avg35.2¢Current34.5¢5,189.71Shares
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$1.7KPnL+$601Avg3.6¢Current5.5¢31,726.24Shares
Showing 8 of 413 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet MrMarket: 49% win rate over 535 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −34.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −447.7%, n=24 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−18.1% over 15 fills); +$16K lifetime P&L, $8.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.