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Trader profile

Kerguelen.

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$8.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet3 open · 54% underwater · 8 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded985Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−24.5% / $95% interval −289.7% to +240.6%41 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−6.2%n=29 settled
Crypto
−40.7%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 14 minutes ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded8 hours ago
Current position value
$1.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$36.9K
Concentration
82.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
524
Showing the largest 8 of 524
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Up · YesValue$1.1KPnL+$658Avg36.5¢Current96.5¢1,095.86Shares
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$126PnL−$485Avg0.2¢Current0.1¢251,245.4Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Down · NoValue$102PnL−$298Avg33.3¢Current8.5¢1,202.18Shares
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5
Over · YesValue$0PnL−$120Avg14.5¢Current0¢825Shares
Bruins vs. Sabres
Sabres · NoValue$0PnL−$30Avg61.7¢Current0¢48.6Shares
Marist Red Foxes vs. Siena Saints: O/U 134.5
Over · YesValue$0PnL−$140Avg52¢Current0¢269.23Shares
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India
IndiaValue$0PnL−$21Avg13.5¢Current0¢156.08Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Up · YesValue$0PnL−$287Avg19.3¢Current0¢1,483.84Shares
Showing 8 of 524 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Kerguelen.: edge −24.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −289.7%, n=41 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−6.2% over 29 fills); −$8.7K lifetime P&L, $1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.