PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Outsid3rTrading

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$91.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate58.7%588 settled · past 90 days54 open · 54% underwater · 22 hours ago
Lifetime volume$13.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded755Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+0.3% / $95% interval −25.6% to +26.2%557 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+5.4%n=425 settled
Finance
−7.8%n=29 settled
Politics
−8.5%n=84 settled
Unmapped
−30.2%n=15 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 58.7% · Decided 588 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded22 hours ago
Current position value
$360.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$293.7K
Concentration
17.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
147
Showing the largest 8 of 147
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$63.5KPnL+$23.5KAvg50¢Current79.4¢80,000Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$37.4KPnL+$1.2KAvg90.5¢Current93.5¢40,000Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$34.2KPnL+$1.7KAvg81.4¢Current85.5¢40,000Shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$27.7KPnL+$3KAvg82.7¢Current92.5¢29,999.99Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$19.8KPnL+$630Avg96¢Current99.2¢20,000Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$18.6KPnL−$25.9KAvg49.5¢Current20.7¢89,999.95Shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$18.5KPnL+$1.9KAvg83¢Current92.5¢20,000.01Shares
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
NoValue$11.6KPnL+$338Avg93.8¢Current96.7¢11,999.98Shares
Showing 8 of 147 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Outsid3rTrading: 58.7% win rate over 588 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +0.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −25.6%, n=557 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+5.4% over 425 fills); +$91.1K lifetime P&L, $13.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.