PolyTrace
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Trader profile

PROBABILITYTRADER

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$134.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate26.5%2,117 settled · past 90 days0 open · 11 hours ago
Lifetime volume$23.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded830Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−1.2% / $95% interval −67.4% to +65.0%579 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−0.2%n=495 settled
Unmapped
−6.0%n=84 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 26.5% · Decided 2,117 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded11 hours ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$556.5K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
192
Showing the largest 8 of 192
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
Natus Vincere · NoValue$0PnL−$4.4KAvg45¢Current0¢9,724.24Shares
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B
Bilibili Gaming Junior · NoValue$0PnL−$829Avg41.5¢Current0¢2,000Shares
LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 2 Winner
KaBuM! Ilha das LendasValue$0PnL−$2.8KAvg45.6¢Current0¢6,075.91Shares
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Phantom Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D
Alliance · YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg46¢Current0¢11.01Shares
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs paiN Gaming - Game 4 Winner
Vivo Keyd StarsValue$0PnL−$3.3KAvg48.6¢Current0¢6,775.35Shares
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner
Nongshim Red ForceValue$0PnL−$899Avg47.3¢Current0¢1,900.31Shares
LoL: Winthrop University vs Maryville University - Game 3 Winner
Maryville University · NoValue$0PnL−$3.9KAvg54.5¢Current0¢7,229.83Shares
Counter-Strike: WBT vs SAW (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs
WBT · YesValue$0PnL−$2.4KAvg45¢Current0¢5,337.29Shares
Showing 8 of 192 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet PROBABILITYTRADER: 26.5% win rate over 2,117 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −1.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −67.4%, n=579 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−0.2% over 495 fills); −$134.3K lifetime P&L, $23.2M traded, updated 2026-09-23.