Trader profile

EducatedGuess69420

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-22

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$56.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…8 open · 52% underwater · 2 days ago

Lifetime volume$1.5M353 trades · Polymarket

Markets traded87Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−30.6% / $95% interval −439.3% to +378.1%30 settled fills · 90d window

Politics: −23.6%n=13 settled
Finance: −23.9%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded2 days ago

Current position value: $23.5K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$8.4K
Concentration: 26.3%
Positions: 17

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

YesValue$6.2KPnL+$751Avg58.4¢Current66.5¢9,288.6Shares

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YesValue$5.4KPnL+$374Avg5.7¢Current6.1¢88,098.8Shares

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$5.2KPnL+$3.1KAvg4.6¢Current11.6¢44,922Shares

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$2.2KPnL+$214Avg59¢Current65.5¢3,296.76Shares

Trump out as President before 2027?

YesValue$1.9KPnL−$3.5KAvg15.8¢Current5.5¢33,846.58Shares

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$1.6KPnL+$105Avg2.8¢Current3.1¢51,774.87Shares

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$1KPnL−$560Avg1.6¢Current1.1¢99,038.61Shares

Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$152PnL−$848Avg3¢Current0.5¢33,729.66Shares

Showing 8 of 17 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

3 days ago

SELLYES

Yes · 19¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Open market →$1.3K

3 days ago

BUYNO

No · 81¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Open market →$5.5K

7 days ago

SELLYES

Yes · 17¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Open market →$1.2K

8 days ago

SELLYES

No change · 10¢

Fed Decision in September?Open market →$1.3K

8 days ago

BUYNO

No change · 90¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Open market →$12K

About this wallet

Wallet EducatedGuess69420: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −30.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −439.3%, n=30 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−23.6% over 13 fills); −$56.8K lifetime P&L, $1.5M traded, updated 2026-09-22.