PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Melody626

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$93.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate51.6%762 settled · past 180 days1 open · 100% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$35.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded540Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.5% / $95% interval −33.1% to +14.2%496 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+4.1%n=133 settled
Unmapped
+2.8%n=12 settled
Sports
−9.4%n=257 settled
Culture
−28.8%n=56 settled
Finance
−29.9%n=32 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 51.6% · Decided 762 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$375.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.3M
Concentration
36.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
342
Showing the largest 8 of 342
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
YesValue$138.5KPnL+$26.3KAvg81¢Current100¢138,465.3Shares
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
YesValue$110KPnL+$56.7KAvg48.4¢Current100¢109,996.51Shares
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
YesValue$64.7KPnL+$14.8KAvg77.1¢Current100¢64,696.16Shares
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?
NoValue$32.5KPnL+$10.2KAvg68.6¢Current100¢32,450.48Shares
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?
YesValue$26.5KPnL+$8.3KAvg68.5¢Current100¢26,479.38Shares
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election by 70% or more?
NoValue$703PnL+$503Avg28.4¢Current100¢702.81Shares
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?
YesValue$650PnL+$331Avg49¢Current100¢649.71Shares
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
NoValue$272PnL+$122Avg55¢Current100¢272.18Shares
Showing 8 of 342 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Melody626: 51.6% win rate over 762 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −9.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −33.1%, n=496 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+4.1% over 133 fills); −$93.4K lifetime P&L, $35.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.