PolyTrace
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Trader profile

dry-september

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$641Polymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate43.3%328 settled · past 180 days4 open · >99% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$1.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded307Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−41.4% / $95% interval −114.8% to +32.1%45 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−58.5%n=32 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 43.3% · Decided 328 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$38
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.3K
Concentration
62.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
24
Showing the largest 8 of 24
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?
YesValue$23PnL−$12Avg22¢Current14.5¢161.55Shares
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$12PnL−$22Avg58.1¢Current20.5¢57.24Shares
Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$2PnL+$0.06Avg2.3¢Current2.4¢99.28Shares
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$0.20PnL−$1Avg2¢Current0.3¢66.74Shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$3Avg28¢Current0¢10Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
YesValue$0PnL−$0.05Avg25¢Current0¢0.2Shares
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$3Avg3.9¢Current0¢66.49Shares
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$0PnL−$200Avg22.8¢Current0¢877.19Shares
Showing 8 of 24 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet dry-september: 43.3% win rate over 328 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −41.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −114.8%, n=45 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−58.5% over 32 fills); +$641 lifetime P&L, $1.9M traded, updated 2026-09-21.