PolyTrace
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Trader profile

RogerFed

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$7.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate68%200 settled · past 180 days21 open · 1% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$828.4K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded290Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+26.4% / $95% interval −379.9% to +432.7%12 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+26.4%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 68% · Decided 200 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$24.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$3.7K
Concentration
21.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
21
Showing the largest 8 of 21
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?
NoValue$5.3KPnL+$1KAvg75.7¢Current94¢5,634.76Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?
NoValue$4.7KPnL+$162Avg71.9¢Current74.5¢6,343.09Shares
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?
NoValue$4KPnL+$1.5KAvg49.6¢Current80.5¢5,011.4Shares
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$1.6KPnL+$80Avg78.3¢Current82.5¢1,889.56Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$1.4KPnL+$212Avg49.4¢Current58.5¢2,320.15Shares
Will Iran target an Arab country by September 15, 2026?
NoValue$1.2KPnL+$64Avg86.4¢Current91.5¢1,265.41Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
NoValue$897PnL+$105Avg37.1¢Current42¢2,134.69Shares
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?
YesValue$652PnL+$66Avg75.9¢Current84.5¢771.9Shares
Showing 8 of 21 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet RogerFed: 68% win rate over 200 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +26.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −379.9%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+26.4% over 12 fills); −$7.9K lifetime P&L, $828.4K traded, updated 2026-09-23.