PolyTrace
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Trader profile

15perces

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$285.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate46.3%25,905 settled · past 90 days11 open · 81% underwater · 14 hours ago
Lifetime volume$13.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,959Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+11.2% / $95% interval −566.6% to +589.0%102 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+15.2%n=98 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 46.3% · Decided 25,905 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded14 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$1.3K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.1M
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
33.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-09-05?
YesValue$437PnL−$77Avg57¢Current48.5¢901.4Shares
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group A
paiN · YesValue$191PnL+$44Avg77.1¢Current100¢191Shares
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group A
Bounty Hunters Esports · YesValue$186PnL+$23Avg87.7¢Current100¢186Shares
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Turma do Pagode - Map 2 Winner
paiN · YesValue$168PnL+$38Avg77.5¢Current100¢168.38Shares
Nigeria Quadrangular T20 Series: Nigeria vs Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone · NoValue$113PnL−$12Avg42.2¢Current38¢297.16Shares
Nigeria Quadrangular T20 Series: Nigeria vs Sierra Leone
Nigeria · YesValue$98PnL+$8Avg56.9¢Current62¢157.93Shares
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-09-16?
YesValue$67PnL−$1Avg40.1¢Current39.5¢170.8Shares
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. LG Twins
Hanwha Eagles · YesValue$36PnL−$162Avg50¢Current9¢395.04Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 15perces: 46.3% win rate over 25,905 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +11.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −566.6%, n=102 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+15.2% over 98 fills); −$285.1K lifetime P&L, $13.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.