PolyTrace
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Trader profile

John-Silver

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$6.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate69.4%62 settled · past 180 days1 open · 100% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$796.4K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded93Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−36.6% / $95% interval −470.3% to +397.1%35 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−36.6%n=35 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 69.4% · Decided 62 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$2.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$23.6K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
20
Showing the largest 8 of 20
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YesValue$2.4KPnL−$8.2KAvg86.5¢Current19.5¢12,308.21Shares
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31?
NoValue$0PnL−$98Avg60.9¢Current0¢160.16Shares
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?
NoValue$0PnL−$529Avg8.3¢Current0¢6,360.37Shares
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
YesValue$0PnL−$0.07Avg9¢Current0¢0.77Shares
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on February 12?
YesValue$0PnL−$154Avg26.1¢Current0¢589.18Shares
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
YesValue$0PnL−$2KAvg18.4¢Current0¢10,932.15Shares
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
YesValue$0PnL−$65Avg3.2¢Current0¢2,022.78Shares
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-15 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
YesValue$0PnL−$33Avg21¢Current0¢155.07Shares
Showing 8 of 20 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet John-Silver: 69.4% win rate over 62 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −36.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −470.3%, n=35 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−36.6% over 35 fills); +$6.5K lifetime P&L, $796.4K traded, updated 2026-09-21.