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Trader profile

TheRealWarMonger

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$8.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate76.7%537 settled · past 180 days13 open · 47% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$6.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded448Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.3% / $95% interval −290.6% to +256.0%105 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−11.9%n=76 settled
Sports
−16.6%n=13 settled
Politics
−17.0%n=16 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 76.7% · Decided 537 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$9.9K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$15.8K
Concentration
56.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
15
Showing the largest 8 of 15
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$162Avg95.8¢Current98.7¢5,659.19Shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
NoValue$1.6KPnL+$27Avg98¢Current99.7¢1,600Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.5KPnL−$325Avg75.3¢Current61.8¢2,400Shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$423PnL+$139Avg47.3¢Current70.5¢600Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$370PnL+$10Avg90¢Current92.5¢400Shares
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
NoValue$185PnL+$9Avg94.6¢Current99.2¢187.06Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$135PnL+$69Avg33¢Current67.5¢200Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
NoValue$55PnL−$45Avg74.1¢Current41¢134.98Shares
Showing 8 of 15 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet TheRealWarMonger: 76.7% win rate over 537 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −17.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −290.6%, n=105 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−11.9% over 76 fills); −$8.4K lifetime P&L, $6.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.