PolyTrace
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Trader profile

hfrozendancer

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$29.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate31.5%15,343 settled · past 90 days23 open · 31% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$2.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded4,189Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+9.5% / $95% interval −529.8% to +548.7%26 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+9.6%n=25 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 28 minutes ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 31.5% · Decided 15,343 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded2 days ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$449
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$80.2K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
21%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
DownValue$94PnL+$48Avg49.4¢Current100¢94Shares
Solana Up or Down - September 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
DownValue$86PnL+$49Avg43.7¢Current100¢86.19Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
Down · NoValue$29PnL+$8Avg72.5¢Current100¢29.17Shares
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 22?
NoValue$21PnL+$1Avg93.5¢Current100¢20.65Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
Down · NoValue$20PnL+$0.81Avg40.8¢Current42.5¢48Shares
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 22?
NoValue$20PnL+$0.39Avg98¢Current100¢20Shares
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 22?
NoValue$20PnL+$0.59Avg97¢Current100¢20Shares
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 22?
NoValue$20PnL+$6Avg71¢Current99.9¢20Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet hfrozendancer: 31.5% win rate over 15,343 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +9.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −529.8%, n=26 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+9.6% over 25 fills); −$29.9K lifetime P&L, $2.3M traded, updated 2026-09-23.