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Trader profile

Tobias1909

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$49.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate65%537 settled · past 180 days21 open · 78% underwater · 18 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,210Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+2.9% / $95% interval −15.5% to +21.2%236 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+2.9%n=234 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 65% · Decided 537 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded18 hours ago
Current position value
$34.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$290.3K
Concentration
24.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
234
Showing the largest 8 of 234
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$8.5KPnL+$496Avg74.9¢Current79.5¢10,681.86Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$386Avg66.6¢Current71.5¢7,892.46Shares
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
YesValue$4.6KPnL+$963Avg73.9¢Current93.7¢4,865.44Shares
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YesValue$3.9KPnL−$4.2KAvg46.1¢Current22.2¢17,524.16Shares
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?
YesValue$3.4KPnL+$185Avg54.4¢Current57.5¢5,921.96Shares
Hangzhou Open: Valentin Royer vs Adam Walton
Valentin Royer · YesValue$2.6KPnL−$101Avg48.3¢Current46.5¢5,685.58Shares
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
YesValue$2.3KPnL−$302Avg13¢Current11.5¢20,156.69Shares
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YesValue$1.1KPnL−$153Avg9.7¢Current8.6¢12,739.06Shares
Showing 8 of 234 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Tobias1909: 65% win rate over 537 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +2.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −15.5%, n=236 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+2.9% over 234 fills); +$49.2K lifetime P&L, $3.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.