PolyTrace
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Trader profile

megaforest

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$7.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…10 open · 6% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$607.3K349 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded59Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−15.5% / $95% interval −544.7% to +513.7%31 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−19.5%n=23 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$45.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$1.2K
Concentration
71.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
12
Showing the largest 8 of 12
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
NoValue$32.3KPnL+$949Avg89.8¢Current92.5¢34,868.88Shares
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
YesValue$7.8KPnL+$193Avg71.5¢Current73.4¢10,642.99Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
YesValue$2.5KPnL+$92Avg52.5¢Current54.5¢4,512.05Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
YesValue$1.4KPnL−$27Avg31¢Current30.4¢4,512.16Shares
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?
YesValue$952PnL−$39Avg87.5¢Current84¢1,132.99Shares
Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?
YesValue$190PnL+$20Avg85¢Current95.1¢199.48Shares
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?
YesValue$140PnL+$13Avg89.6¢Current99¢141.18Shares
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$85PnL−$10Avg54¢Current48.5¢176.06Shares
Showing 8 of 12 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet megaforest: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −15.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −544.7%, n=31 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−19.5% over 23 fills); +$7.6K lifetime P&L, $607.3K traded, updated 2026-09-24.