PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

CompulsiveGambler

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$69.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate66.9%414 settled · past 180 days101 open · 19% underwater · 18 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded829Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.5% / $95% interval −328.1% to +293.1%12 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−17.5%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 66.9% · Decided 414 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded18 hours ago
Current position value
$77.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$5.2K
Concentration
11.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
105
Showing the largest 8 of 105
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$8.8KPnL+$811Avg74.4¢Current82¢10,740.57Shares
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$8.1KPnL+$512Avg80.1¢Current85.5¢9,460Shares
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
NoValue$6.2KPnL+$445Avg86.7¢Current93.5¢6,588.29Shares
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$5.5KPnL−$645Avg67.5¢Current60.5¢9,159.87Shares
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$4.6KPnL+$214Avg93.9¢Current98.4¢4,713.57Shares
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.8KPnL+$204Avg68.2¢Current72¢5,343.19Shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$3.6KPnL+$619Avg82.2¢Current99.1¢3,653.18Shares
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
NoValue$3.5KPnL+$380Avg82.5¢Current92.5¢3,799.99Shares
Showing 8 of 105 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet CompulsiveGambler: 66.9% win rate over 414 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −17.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −328.1%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−17.5% over 12 fills); +$69.2K lifetime P&L, $3.4M traded, updated 2026-09-23.