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Trader profile

CDAP1

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$133.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 15 settled so far10 open · 1% underwater · 5 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$9.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded45Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+38.1% / $95% interval −160.3% to +236.5%148 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+38.1%n=148 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete5 minutes ago
Current position value
$123.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$51.8K
Concentration
77.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
28
Showing the largest 8 of 28
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
YesValue$96KPnL+$28.7KAvg50.1¢Current71.5¢134,279.53Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$23.5KPnL+$8.8KAvg43¢Current68.5¢34,340.43Shares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
NoValue$1.4KPnL+$681Avg49.3¢Current97.8¢1,404.56Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?
YesValue$1.1KPnL+$240Avg24.8¢Current31.5¢3,585.94Shares
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
YesValue$580PnL−$128Avg5.4¢Current4.5¢13,038.8Shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YesValue$385PnL+$324Avg15.2¢Current96.3¢400.05Shares
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
YesValue$227PnL+$116Avg2.9¢Current6¢3,784.65Shares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
YesValue$30PnL−$243Avg20¢Current2.2¢1,362.81Shares
Showing 8 of 28 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet CDAP1: edge +38.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −160.3%, n=148 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+38.1% over 148 fills); +$133.4K lifetime P&L, $9.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.