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Trader profile

thebug44

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$186.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…14 open · 21% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$7.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded135Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−32.9% / $95% interval −102.9% to +37.1%164 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−35.3%n=163 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$68.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$174.4K
Concentration
29.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
53
Showing the largest 8 of 53
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$20.2KPnL+$11.7KAvg5.6¢Current13.4¢151,384.07Shares
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$13.5KPnL+$4.7KAvg3.3¢Current5.1¢264,188.15Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$7.4KPnL+$441Avg10.8¢Current11.5¢64,797.88Shares
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$7.2KPnL+$937Avg17.8¢Current20.5¢34,882.55Shares
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$5.8KPnL+$1.9KAvg7.7¢Current11.5¢50,420.98Shares
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
YesValue$3.7KPnL−$1.5KAvg12¢Current8.5¢43,137.76Shares
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$3.6KPnL+$267Avg3.6¢Current3.9¢93,157.83Shares
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
YesValue$3.4KPnL−$471Avg14.2¢Current12.5¢27,098.65Shares
Showing 8 of 53 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet thebug44: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −32.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −102.9%, n=164 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−35.3% over 163 fills); +$186.1K lifetime P&L, $7.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.