Trader profile
Historical record
Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.
A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.
This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.
Measured 23 hours ago
Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.
Observed activity
Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.
No category data for this wallet.
No tracked trading behavior yet.
Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.
Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.
Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.
Recent activity
Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.
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Large trades
Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations
Wallet Marcoli: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +6.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −13.0%, n=140 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+6.5% over 140 fills); −$82.3K lifetime P&L, $6.3M traded, updated 2026-09-23.
