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Trader profile

CosmicCedar

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$16.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate77.2%2,723 settled · past 90 days259 open · 30% underwater · 42 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded5,060Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−6.6% / $95% interval −21.7% to +8.4%141 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
+4.8%n=31 settled
Unmapped
−3.1%n=25 settled
Sports
−5.5%n=59 settled
Politics
−21.9%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 77.2% · Decided 2,723 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete42 minutes ago
Current position value
$15.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$31K
Concentration
33.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,751
Showing the largest 8 of 1,751
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$5.2KPnL+$630Avg76¢Current86.5¢6,000Shares
Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title?
YesValue$1.1KPnL−$98Avg72.5¢Current66.6¢1,681.7Shares
Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2027?
YesValue$826PnL+$6Avg94.1¢Current94.9¢870.64Shares
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 AL Central title?
YesValue$531PnL−$329Avg65¢Current40.2¢1,321.8Shares
Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
NoValue$408PnL+$2Avg98.8¢Current99.2¢411.3Shares
Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?
YesValue$381PnL+$30Avg78.4¢Current85¢447.82Shares
Will Dillon Dingler hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
NoValue$310PnL+$6Avg98¢Current100¢310Shares
Will Nasim Nuñez lead the MLB in stolen bases for the 2026 regular season?
YesValue$269PnL+$109Avg55¢Current92.5¢290.4Shares
Showing 8 of 1,751 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet CosmicCedar: 77.2% win rate over 2,723 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −6.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −21.7%, n=141 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (+4.8% over 31 fills); +$16.5K lifetime P&L, $3M traded, updated 2026-09-24.