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Trader profile

TBill1

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$66.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…48 open · 14% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$10.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded382Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−31.6% / $95% interval −287.3% to +224.0%98 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−27.0%n=13 settled
Finance
−27.7%n=78 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 6 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$139.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$113K
Concentration
25.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
144
Showing the largest 8 of 144
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$35.8KPnL+$805Avg50¢Current51.2¢70,000Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NoValue$34.2KPnL−$805Avg50¢Current48.9¢70,000Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$18.9KPnL+$10.5KAvg30.2¢Current68.5¢27,521.34Shares
US recession by end of 2026?
NoValue$15.1KPnL+$187Avg89.4¢Current90.5¢16,698.57Shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$30Avg92¢Current92.5¢6,000Shares
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?
NoValue$4.4KPnL+$18Avg97.2¢Current97.6¢4,523.17Shares
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
NoValue$3.3KPnL+$503Avg67.1¢Current79¢4,231.19Shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
YesValue$2.7KPnL+$508Avg60.2¢Current74¢3,681.29Shares
Showing 8 of 144 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet TBill1: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −31.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −287.3%, n=98 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−27.0% over 13 fills); +$66.6K lifetime P&L, $10.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.