PolyTrace
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Trader profile

881112

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$439.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…142 open · 61% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$18.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded535Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+24.0% / $95% interval −144.9% to +192.8%114 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+51.8%n=18 settled
Politics
+21.7%n=85 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$95.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$365.2K
Concentration
9.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
693
Showing the largest 8 of 693
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
NoValue$9.3KPnL+$697Avg86.5¢Current93.5¢9,909.08Shares
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$5.4KPnL+$279Avg94¢Current99.2¢5,420.19Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
NoValue$4.8KPnL−$850Avg56¢Current47.5¢10,000Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$3.4KPnL+$472Avg79.4¢Current92¢3,739.69Shares
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
NoValue$2.2KPnL−$6Avg91.5¢Current91.2¢2,377.25Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YesValue$2.2KPnL+$412Avg70¢Current86.5¢2,500Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$2.1KPnL−$1KAvg33.4¢Current22.5¢9,319.51Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YesValue$2.1KPnL+$1KAvg21.3¢Current41.5¢4,966.98Shares
Showing 8 of 693 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 881112: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +24.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −144.9%, n=114 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+51.8% over 18 fills); +$439.6K lifetime P&L, $18.2M traded, updated 2026-09-22.