PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

OraculumNobius

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$11.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—The available history is not deep enough to verify this41 open · <1% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$29.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded3,651Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−4.9% / $95% interval −82.5% to +72.6%204 settled fills · 90d window
Science
+0.1%n=109 settled
Finance
−6.1%n=15 settled
Politics
−12.5%n=53 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

The full history is not available, so the win rate cannot be verified.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$155.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$5.5K
Concentration
30.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
41
Showing the largest 8 of 41
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$48.1KPnL+$2.4KAvg91.5¢Current96.3¢49,999.74Shares
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
NoValue$37.6KPnL+$2.9KAvg86.8¢Current94¢39,977.07Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$20KPnL+$112Avg99.3¢Current99.9¢19,999.78Shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
NoValue$13.7KPnL+$151Avg98.4¢Current99.6¢13,723.75Shares
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 24?
NoValue$6.5KPnL+$6Avg99.9¢Current100¢6,499.99Shares
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on September 23?
NoValue$5.7KPnL+$4Avg99.9¢Current100¢5,738.13Shares
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on September 23?
NoValue$4.5KPnL+$2Avg99.9¢Current100¢4,500Shares
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$3.8KPnL−$0.48Avg99.6¢Current99.6¢3,857.07Shares
Showing 8 of 41 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet OraculumNobius: edge −4.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −82.5%, n=204 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Science (+0.1% over 109 fills); +$11.7K lifetime P&L, $29.2M traded, updated 2026-09-24.