PolyTrace
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Trader profile

cigarettes

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$14.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate49.5%67,052 settled · past 90 days4,780 open · 65% underwater · 4 hours ago
Lifetime volume$585.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded2,780Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−13.6% / $95% interval −36.4% to +9.2%824 settled fills · 90d window
Unmapped
−5.6%n=22 settled
Sports
−11.9%n=701 settled
Finance
−23.5%n=101 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 49.5% · Decided 67,052 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded4 hours ago
Current position value
$337.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$50.8K
Concentration
7.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
4,850
Showing the largest 8 of 4,850
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
NoValue$25.7KPnL+$7.1KAvg42.2¢Current58.5¢43,869.68Shares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YesValue$23KPnL+$13.7KAvg23.5¢Current58.2¢39,549.2Shares
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
NoValue$20.5KPnL+$298Avg54.2¢Current55¢37,185.51Shares
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$13.3KPnL−$3.9KAvg34.9¢Current27¢49,372.55Shares
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
NoValue$13.2KPnL−$3KAvg33.8¢Current27.5¢48,016.26Shares
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
NoValue$6.1KPnL+$48Avg94.7¢Current95.4¢6,439.66Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$5.3KPnL−$3Avg99.3¢Current99.3¢5,296.16Shares
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$4.3KPnL−$2Avg99.9¢Current99.9¢4,304.99Shares
Showing 8 of 4,850 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet cigarettes: 49.5% win rate over 67,052 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −13.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −36.4%, n=824 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−11.9% over 701 fills); −$14.2K lifetime P&L, $585.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.