Trader profile

chefradish

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$11.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…50 open · 74% underwater · 16 hours ago

Lifetime volume$4.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded896Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−14.2% / $95% interval −179.3% to +150.9%13 settled fills · 90d window

Finance: −9.6%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded16 hours ago

Current position value: $2.9K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$19.1K
Concentration: 28.4%
Positions: 308

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

YesValue$830PnL+$193Avg44.8¢Current58.5¢1,420.71Shares

Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?

YesValue$296PnL−$248Avg11¢Current6¢4,924.92Shares

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

YesValue$239PnL−$171Avg0.8¢Current0.5¢53,096.44Shares

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?

YesValue$215PnL+$108Avg8.2¢Current16.5¢1,304.13Shares

Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead the MLB in ERA for the 2026 regular season?

NoValue$104PnL+$3Avg95.9¢Current99.1¢104.96Shares

Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

NoValue$95PnL+$12Avg70.6¢Current80.5¢117.6Shares

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

YesValue$79PnL+$31Avg7¢Current11.5¢690.43Shares

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

YesValue$77PnL−$396Avg22.3¢Current3.7¢2,121.31Shares

Showing 8 of 308 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

15 hours ago

BUYNO

95.3¢

Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?Open market →$3.1K

Open

16 hours ago

SELLNO

5.2% · 40.6¢

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Open market →$1.1K

16 hours ago

BUYYES

5.2% · 59.4¢

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Open market →$1.8K

4 days ago

SELLYES

5.2% · 44.3¢

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Open market →$1.3K

5 days ago

BUYYES

5.2% · 48.7¢

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?Open market →$1K

About this wallet

Wallet chefradish: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −14.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −179.3%, n=13 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−9.6% over 10 fills); −$11.6K lifetime P&L, $4.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.