PolyTrace
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Trader profile

curie

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$1.3MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate54.7%25,245 settled · past 90 days26 open · 35% underwater · 22 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$93.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,874Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.1% / $95% interval −37.3% to +43.5%3,233 settled fills · 90d window
Unmapped
+26.2%n=26 settled
Sports
+2.9%n=3,206 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 54.7% · Decided 25,245 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Complete22 minutes ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$8K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.4M
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
42.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
4,999
Showing the largest 8 of 4,999
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks · YesValue$3.4KPnL+$824Avg75.6¢Current100¢3,384.77Shares
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
Under · NoValue$1.2KPnL+$145Avg88¢Current100¢1,214Shares
Kings vs. Ducks
Ducks · NoValue$687PnL−$386Avg57¢Current36.5¢1,882.47Shares
Jack O'Connell announced as next James Bond?
NoValue$333PnL+$8Avg97¢Current99.4¢334.79Shares
Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?
NoValue$277PnL+$7Avg97.1¢Current99.6¢278.55Shares
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?
NoValue$204PnL+$10Avg88.7¢Current93.4¢218.08Shares
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
NoValue$191PnL−$11Avg88.9¢Current84¢227.84Shares
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
Houston Astros · NoValue$182PnL+$26Avg67¢Current78¢233Shares
Showing 8 of 4,999 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet curie: 54.7% win rate over 25,245 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +3.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −37.3%, n=3,233 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+2.9% over 3,206 fills); +$1.3M lifetime P&L, $93.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.