PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Hot-Skull

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$24.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate73.3%603 settled · past 90 days137 open · 30% underwater · 13 hours ago
Lifetime volume$981.6K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,046Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−11.5% / $95% interval −415.6% to +392.6%28 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 73.3% · Decided 603 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded13 hours ago
Current position value
$7.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$626
Concentration
13.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
219
Showing the largest 8 of 219
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
YesValue$1KPnL+$204Avg75.1¢Current93.9¢1,084.29Shares
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?
YesValue$724PnL+$63Avg77.1¢Current84.5¢856.69Shares
Will Teddy Riner be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
NoValue$479PnL+$11Avg96.5¢Current98.9¢484.49Shares
Will Michel Barnier advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
NoValue$477PnL+$9Avg97.3¢Current99.2¢481Shares
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$438PnL+$22Avg54.2¢Current57¢768.91Shares
Will Gérald Darmanin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
NoValue$397PnL+$8Avg96.6¢Current98.7¢402.38Shares
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
NoValue$312PnL+$2Avg97.6¢Current98.2¢317.43Shares
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?
ZemmourValue$289PnL+$23Avg87.1¢Current94.5¢306.29Shares
Showing 8 of 219 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Hot-Skull: 73.3% win rate over 603 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −11.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −415.6%, n=28 settled fills over 90 days); +$24.1K lifetime P&L, $981.6K traded, updated 2026-09-23.