PolyTrace
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Trader profile

pilimili

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$264.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate57.1%217 settled · past 90 days37 open · 26% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$30.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded260Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−12.6% / $95% interval −42.1% to +17.0%475 settled fills · 90d window
Crypto
−7.9%n=30 settled
Politics
−8.7%n=176 settled
Finance
−11.3%n=73 settled
Sports
−15.0%n=195 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 57.1% · Decided 217 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$604K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$596.2K
Concentration
14.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
101
Showing the largest 8 of 101
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
NoValue$88.6KPnL+$8.8KAvg84.5¢Current93.9¢94,430.23Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$60.9KPnL+$61Avg99¢Current99.1¢61,419.7Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$50.2KPnL−$1.9KAvg88.8¢Current85.5¢58,703.93Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?
NoValue$41.8KPnL+$29Avg98¢Current98.1¢42,624.7Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?
YesValue$40.4KPnL+$1.1KAvg91.5¢Current94.2¢42,868.94Shares
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$35.8KPnL−$602Avg90.5¢Current89¢40,280.62Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$33.2KPnL−$722Avg96.8¢Current94.8¢34,999.9Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?
YesValue$28.1KPnL−$5.4KAvg74.6¢Current62.5¢44,998.68Shares
Showing 8 of 101 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet pilimili: 57.1% win rate over 217 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −12.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −42.1%, n=475 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Crypto (−7.9% over 30 fills); −$264.6K lifetime P&L, $30.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.