PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Everestpredictions

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate69.5%554 settled · past 180 days48 open · 10% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$1.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded761Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−23.9% / $95% interval −593.1% to +545.2%36 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−23.5%n=33 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 69.5% · Decided 554 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$44.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$1.2K
Concentration
8.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
56
Showing the largest 8 of 56
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$3.7KPnL+$238Avg89.4¢Current95.5¢3,911.86Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$3.1KPnL+$299Avg86.3¢Current95.4¢3,299.4Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$3.1KPnL+$70Avg86.5¢Current88.5¢3,451.1Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
YesValue$2.9KPnL+$275Avg86.9¢Current95.9¢3,040.27Shares
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
NoValue$2.5KPnL+$224Avg83.6¢Current92¢2,671.55Shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$2.3KPnL+$116Avg92.2¢Current97.2¢2,353.51Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
NoValue$2.3KPnL+$75Avg87.5¢Current90.5¢2,518.42Shares
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$2.3KPnL+$135Avg85.7¢Current91.1¢2,475.11Shares
Showing 8 of 56 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Everestpredictions: 69.5% win rate over 554 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −23.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −593.1%, n=36 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−23.5% over 33 fills); +$2K lifetime P&L, $1.2M traded, updated 2026-09-22.