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Trader profile

Arnus

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$15.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet3 open · 14% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$186K263 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded154Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+166.4% / $95% interval −108.7% to +441.6%19 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+166.4%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$1.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$23.2K
Concentration
76.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
75
Showing the largest 8 of 75
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YesValue$1.1KPnL+$286Avg45¢Current60.5¢1,844.45Shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
NoValue$263PnL−$51Avg58¢Current48.5¢541.38Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$76PnL+$26Avg38.6¢Current58.7¢129.64Shares
Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi
Luciano Darderi · NoValue$0PnL−$232Avg45.7¢Current0¢508.28Shares
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul · NoValue$0PnL−$121Avg53¢Current0¢228.3Shares
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce
Martin Landaluce · NoValue$0PnL−$20Avg13¢Current0¢153.85Shares
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev
Flavio Cobolli · YesValue$0PnL−$75Avg25¢Current0¢300Shares
Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx
Alexander Blockx · NoValue$0PnL−$100Avg20¢Current0¢500Shares
Showing 8 of 75 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Arnus: edge +166.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −108.7%, n=19 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+166.4% over 19 fills); +$15.7K lifetime P&L, $186K traded, updated 2026-09-21.