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Trader profile

AlfredTheShiller

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$45.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…24 open · 46% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,228Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

Not measured: fewer than 10 settled fills in the window. No edge is published for this wallet, and that is not a zero.

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$46.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$1.9K
Concentration
37.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
24
Showing the largest 8 of 24
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$17.5KPnL+$8KAvg50¢Current91.9¢19,000Shares
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
NoValue$11.7KPnL+$1KAvg80.6¢Current88.5¢13,183.69Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$5.2KPnL+$1.2KAvg53.6¢Current70.5¢7,341.83Shares
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$3.8KPnL+$2.8KAvg10¢Current37.5¢9,999.99Shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$1.5KPnL−$8KAvg50¢Current8.2¢19,000Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YesValue$1.5KPnL−$1.7KAvg45.1¢Current21.5¢7,000Shares
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
NoValue$927PnL+$90Avg83.6¢Current92.5¢1,002.09Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$895PnL+$390Avg50.5¢Current89.5¢1,000Shares
Showing 8 of 24 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AlfredTheShiller: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge not yet scored (needs 10 settled fills); +$45.3K lifetime P&L, $4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.