PolyTrace
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Trader profile

keribit

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$105.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate100%33 settled · past 90 days7 open · <1% underwater · 8 hours ago
Lifetime volume$9.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded269Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.8% / $95% interval −313.5% to +297.8%31 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−7.8%n=31 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 100% · Decided 33 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded8 hours ago
Current position value
$248.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$11.4K
Concentration
41.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
8
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
NoValue$103.4KPnL+$8KAvg89.8¢Current97.4¢106,209.76Shares
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
NoValue$53.2KPnL+$1.6KAvg93.7¢Current96.7¢54,999.99Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
NoValue$29.8KPnL−$45Avg99.5¢Current99.4¢30,000Shares
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$28.2KPnL+$496Avg92.3¢Current94¢29,999.94Shares
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
NoValue$19.5KPnL+$802Avg93.4¢Current97.4¢20,000.24Shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
NoValue$9.8KPnL+$281Avg95.5¢Current98.4¢9,999.64Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$4.8KPnL+$298Avg90¢Current96¢5,000.01Shares
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
YesValue$0PnL−$71Avg0.4¢Current0¢20,001Shares
All 8 positions shown
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet keribit: 100% win rate over 33 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −313.5%, n=31 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−7.8% over 31 fills); +$105.9K lifetime P&L, $9.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.