PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

predictiondiablo

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$47.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…93 open · 7% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$1.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded4,716Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+6.1% / $95% interval −306.2% to +318.4%59 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+7.6%n=58 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$6.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$938
Concentration
22.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
119
Showing the largest 8 of 119
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YesValue$1.5KPnL+$232Avg49.5¢Current58.8¢2,500.48Shares
US recession by end of 2026?
NoValue$922PnL+$142Avg77.4¢Current91.5¢1,007.19Shares
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?
NoValue$681PnL−$8Avg46¢Current45.5¢1,496.92Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
NoValue$585PnL+$132Avg45.7¢Current59¢991.8Shares
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?
YesValue$389PnL+$341Avg10¢Current80.5¢483.3Shares
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05?
NoValue$302PnL+$117Avg60¢Current98.1¢307.99Shares
Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
NoValue$271PnL+$104Avg60.4¢Current97.8¢277.03Shares
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?
NoValue$267PnL+$43Avg77.5¢Current92.5¢288.57Shares
Showing 8 of 119 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet predictiondiablo: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +6.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −306.2%, n=59 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+7.6% over 58 fills); +$47.7K lifetime P&L, $1.7M traded, updated 2026-09-22.