PolyTrace
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Trader profile

mini-man

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$96.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate41.8%208 settled · past 180 days13 open · 94% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded195Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−4.1% / $95% interval −84.0% to +75.8%22 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−1.3%n=10 settled
Politics
−4.4%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 41.8% · Decided 208 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$5.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$9.8K
Concentration
30.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
13
Showing the largest 8 of 13
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$1.6KPnL+$518Avg42¢Current62¢2,589.73Shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
NoValue$1.2KPnL+$71Avg91.3¢Current97.3¢1,184.65Shares
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$786PnL−$3.4KAvg32.1¢Current6¢13,108.1Shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$692PnL−$4.1KAvg48.6¢Current7¢9,892.21Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$443PnL+$91Avg47¢Current59.1¢750.43Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$196PnL−$2.6KAvg29¢Current2¢9,800.09Shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
YesValue$170PnL−$84Avg35.1¢Current23.5¢724.84Shares
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
NoValue$85PnL+$15Avg70.1¢Current85¢100Shares
Showing 8 of 13 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet mini-man: 41.8% win rate over 208 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −4.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −84.0%, n=22 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−1.3% over 10 fills); +$96.8K lifetime P&L, $2M traded, updated 2026-09-22.