PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$352.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate46%12,274 settled · past 90 days547 open · 56% underwater · 8 hours ago
Lifetime volume$517.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,706Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+18.7% / $95% interval −34.8% to +72.2%1,805 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+28.0%n=1,203 settled
Finance
+5.5%n=439 settled
Unmapped
−4.0%n=52 settled
Tech
−5.3%n=11 settled
Sports
−17.7%n=76 settled
Culture
−17.8%n=17 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 46% · Decided 12,274 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded8 hours ago
Current position value
$813.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$30.3K
Concentration
24.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
548
Showing the largest 8 of 548
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$198.4KPnL+$73.4KAvg50¢Current79.4¢250,000Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$51.6KPnL−$73.4KAvg50¢Current20.7¢250,000.01Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$42.9KPnL+$10.4KAvg48.2¢Current63.5¢67,542.4Shares
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
NoValue$42.6KPnL+$486Avg81.6¢Current82.5¢51,656.36Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$36.1KPnL+$368Avg87.6¢Current88.5¢40,786.75Shares
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
NoValue$26.3KPnL+$2.4KAvg83.1¢Current91.5¢28,740.73Shares
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$24.3KPnL+$8.1KAvg55.7¢Current83.5¢29,091.69Shares
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
YesValue$23.4KPnL+$58Avg85.8¢Current86¢27,254.74Shares
Showing 8 of 548 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ArmageddonRewardsBilly: 46% win rate over 12,274 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +18.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −34.8%, n=1,805 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+28.0% over 1,203 fills); +$352.9K lifetime P&L, $517.9M traded, updated 2026-09-23.