Trader profile

Alphax

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$202.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…22 open · 60% underwater · 14 hours ago

Lifetime volume$19.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded531Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−29.5% / $95% interval −258.5% to +199.6%76 settled fills · 90d window

Finance: −19.6%n=23 settled
Sports: −22.9%n=23 settled
Politics: −23.8%n=30 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded14 hours ago

Current position value: $21.4K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$172K
Concentration: 40.8%
Positions: 25

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

NoValue$8.7KPnL+$722Avg79.8¢Current87¢10,038.24Shares

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

YesValue$5.1KPnL−$619Avg65.7¢Current58.6¢8,644.52Shares

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

YesValue$3.4KPnL−$1.1KAvg53.6¢Current40.5¢8,316.25Shares

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?

NoValue$1.5KPnL+$186Avg81.3¢Current92.5¢1,666.98Shares

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

NoValue$875PnL+$305Avg53.7¢Current82.5¢1,060Shares

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

YesValue$810PnL+$156Avg54.5¢Current67.5¢1,200Shares

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

YesValue$325PnL−$375Avg70¢Current32.5¢1,000Shares

Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

NoValue$164PnL+$52Avg56¢Current82¢200Shares

Showing 8 of 25 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

4 days ago

SELLYES

AfD · 99.9¢

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election WinnerOpen market →$7.1K

Reduce

4 days ago

BUYYES

AfD · 85.3¢

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election WinnerOpen market →$2.6K

Add

4 days ago

BUYYES

United Russia (ER) · 91¢

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Open market →$1.8K

Add

4 days ago

SELLNO

New People (NL) · 90¢

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Open market →$4K

4 days ago

SELLYES

September 30 · 99.7¢

Israel closes its airspace by...?Open market →$3.4K

Reduce

About this wallet

Wallet Alphax: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −29.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −258.5%, n=76 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−19.6% over 23 fills); −$202.6K lifetime P&L, $19.5M traded, updated 2026-09-23.