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Trader profile

luck00004

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$324.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate57.1%63 settled · past 90 days11 open · 1% underwater · 9 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded79Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−29.6% / $95% interval −139.1% to +80.0%199 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−10.1%n=91 settled
Finance
−43.5%n=106 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 57.1% · Decided 63 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded9 hours ago
Current position value
$391.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$518.7K
Concentration
52.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
39
Showing the largest 8 of 39
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
NoValue$207.2KPnL+$11KAvg89.2¢Current94.2¢220,000Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
NoValue$71.6KPnL+$5KAvg70.2¢Current75.5¢94,856.89Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?
NoValue$47.2KPnL+$725Avg93¢Current94.5¢50,000Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?
NoValue$46KPnL+$14.7KAvg62.6¢Current92¢50,000Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?
NoValue$19KPnL+$3.1KAvg61.4¢Current73.5¢25,845.98Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$375PnL−$206Avg55¢Current35.5¢1,057Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.375T by September 30?
NoValue$113PnL+$67Avg26¢Current64¢176.85Shares
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.225T by September 30?
YesValue$30PnL−$66Avg32¢Current10¢300Shares
Showing 8 of 39 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet luck00004: 57.1% win rate over 63 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −29.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −139.1%, n=199 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−10.1% over 91 fills); −$324.4K lifetime P&L, $3.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.