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Trader profile

zthunderfury

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$16.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate64.7%269 settled · past 180 days32 open · 9% underwater · 22 hours ago
Lifetime volume$5.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded263Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−5.1% / $95% interval −130.9% to +120.6%142 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−4.4%n=135 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 64.7% · Decided 269 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded22 hours ago
Current position value
$258.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$13.8K
Concentration
29.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
33
Showing the largest 8 of 33
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$77KPnL+$1.9KAvg96.7¢Current99.2¢77,670.86Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$28.8KPnL+$1.1KAvg82.3¢Current85.5¢33,685.1Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$19.5KPnL+$2.1KAvg89.1¢Current99.7¢19,605.5Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$16.5KPnL+$2.7KAvg77.1¢Current92.5¢17,786.05Shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$14.4KPnL+$1.3KAvg84.8¢Current93.5¢15,402.42Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
NoValue$13.4KPnL+$417Avg79.9¢Current82.5¢16,248.57Shares
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
NoValue$9.5KPnL+$1.3KAvg81.2¢Current94¢10,101.51Shares
Iran Nuke before 2027?
NoValue$9.2KPnL+$217Avg92.9¢Current95.1¢9,666.91Shares
Showing 8 of 33 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet zthunderfury: 64.7% win rate over 269 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −5.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −130.9%, n=142 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−4.4% over 135 fills); +$16.1K lifetime P&L, $5.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.