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Trader profile

Erasmus.

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$186.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…15 open · 7% underwater · 54 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$144.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded347Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.5% / $95% interval −21.6% to +28.6%124 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
−0.6%n=115 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete54 minutes ago
Current position value
$657.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$899.5K
Concentration
40.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
69
Showing the largest 8 of 69
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$266.6KPnL+$55KAvg74.2¢Current93.5¢285,170.7Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$175.8KPnL+$55.8KAvg44¢Current64.5¢272,611.67Shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
NoValue$72.1KPnL+$5.1KAvg90.5¢Current97.3¢74,140.88Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
NoValue$54.5KPnL+$16.3KAvg46.6¢Current66.5¢81,881.19Shares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$47.1KPnL+$2.3KAvg88¢Current92.5¢50,894.78Shares
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
NoValue$25.7KPnL+$3.2KAvg82.7¢Current94.5¢27,158.38Shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$6.1KPnL+$295Avg88¢Current92.5¢6,560.39Shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$3.5KPnL−$10.3KAvg37.5¢Current9.5¢36,833.88Shares
Showing 8 of 69 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Erasmus.: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +3.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −21.6%, n=124 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (−0.6% over 115 fills); +$186.2K lifetime P&L, $144.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.