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Trader profile

happywater

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$87.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 8 settled so far2 open · 0% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$829.4K168 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded9Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−38.6% / $95% interval −66.5% to −10.7%15 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−38.6%n=15 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 7 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$1.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$115.8K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
7
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$1.7KPnL+$404Avg49¢Current64.5¢2,603.5Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$0.09PnL+$0.01Avg76¢Current86.5¢0.1Shares
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B
FUT Esports · NoValue$0PnL−$41.2KAvg55¢Current0¢74,999.87Shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
9z · NoValue$0PnL−$14.4KAvg36¢Current0¢39,999.88Shares
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A
paiN · NoValue$0PnL−$8.4KAvg19¢Current0¢44,017Shares
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
Legacy · YesValue$0PnL−$9.6KAvg24¢Current0¢40,000Shares
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D
paiN · NoValue$0PnL−$42.6KAvg40¢Current0¢106,441.85Shares
All 7 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet happywater: edge −38.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −66.5%, n=15 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−38.6% over 15 fills); −$87.1K lifetime P&L, $829.4K traded, updated 2026-09-24.