PolyTrace
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Trader profile

alwaysOn

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$28.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate66.3%285 settled · past 180 days48 open · 24% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$3.3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded838Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−15.7% / $95% interval −650.2% to +618.9%36 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−25.0%n=34 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 6 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 66.3% · Decided 285 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$174.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$5.7K
Concentration
8.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
48
Showing the largest 8 of 48
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NoValue$14.2KPnL+$1.9KAvg86.1¢Current99.4¢14,317.03Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$13.8KPnL+$895Avg80¢Current85.5¢16,150.04Shares
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
NoValue$13.8KPnL+$93Avg97.4¢Current98.1¢14,058.23Shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
NoValue$13.6KPnL+$194Avg93.2¢Current94.5¢14,393.34Shares
Trump out as President before 2027?
NoValue$13.1KPnL+$69Avg94¢Current94.5¢13,890.01Shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
NoValue$11.7KPnL−$1.7KAvg56.5¢Current49.5¢23,690.06Shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$11.3KPnL+$784Avg88.9¢Current95.5¢11,803.71Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
NoValue$10.4KPnL−$157Avg92.9¢Current91.5¢11,334.11Shares
Showing 8 of 48 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet alwaysOn: 66.3% win rate over 285 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −15.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −650.2%, n=36 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−25.0% over 34 fills); +$28.4K lifetime P&L, $3.3M traded, updated 2026-09-23.