PolyTrace
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Trader profile

rdba

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$484.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 10 settled so far30 open · 49% underwater · 12 hours ago
Lifetime volume$46.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded261Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−5.8% / $95% interval −89.0% to +77.5%12 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−5.8%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded12 hours ago
Current position value
$3.7M
Snapshot cash PnL
−$315.2K
Concentration
61%
Largest share of value
Positions
84
Showing the largest 8 of 84
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YesValue$2.2MPnL+$531.8KAvg50¢Current65.5¢3,431,175.42Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
NoValue$1.2MPnL−$531.8KAvg50¢Current34.5¢3,431,175.42Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$213.8KPnL+$24.6KAvg75.7¢Current85.5¢250,000.03Shares
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NoValue$6.9KPnL+$248Avg94.7¢Current98.2¢7,069.6Shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$5.5KPnL−$269Avg90.9¢Current86.7¢6,331.51Shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
NoValue$5.1KPnL−$538Avg93.6¢Current84.7¢6,038.98Shares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
NoValue$4.2KPnL−$573Avg96¢Current84.6¢5,000Shares
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$4.1KPnL+$793Avg52.8¢Current65.5¢6,263.65Shares
Showing 8 of 84 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet rdba: edge −5.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −89.0%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−5.8% over 12 fills); +$484.7K lifetime P&L, $46.5M traded, updated 2026-09-23.