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Trader profile

DessertFalcon

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$4.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate69.4%49 settled · past 180 days9 open · 4% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$4.8M825 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded61Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.1% / $95% interval −622.0% to +603.8%14 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−9.1%n=14 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 69.4% · Decided 49 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$3.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$11.6K
Concentration
25.6%
Largest share of value
Positions
19
Showing the largest 8 of 19
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
NoValue$968PnL+$6Avg87.5¢Current88¢1,100Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?
NoValue$662PnL+$53Avg87¢Current94.5¢700Shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
NoValue$597PnL+$20Avg96.3¢Current99.6¢600Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?
NoValue$488PnL+$25Avg92.6¢Current97.5¢500Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?
NoValue$392PnL+$29Avg90.8¢Current98.1¢400Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
NoValue$384PnL−$0.80Avg96.1¢Current96¢400.01Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?
NoValue$296PnL+$15Avg93.7¢Current98.7¢299.99Shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in September?
NoValue$0.56PnL+$0.04Avg93¢Current99.5¢0.56Shares
Showing 8 of 19 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet DessertFalcon: 69.4% win rate over 49 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −9.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −622.0%, n=14 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−9.1% over 14 fills); +$4.1K lifetime P&L, $4.8M traded, updated 2026-09-21.