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Trader profile

machbut

Directional

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$16KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rateOnly 15 settled so far4 open · 55% underwater · 17 hours ago
Lifetime volume$6.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded43Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnLLoading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−11.2% / $95% interval −110.4% to +87.9%93 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−11.2%n=93 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded17 hours ago
Current position value
$120.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$11.4K
Concentration
51.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
7
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
YesValue$61.9KPnL−$6.6KAvg20.2¢Current18.3¢339,361.03Shares
YesValue$58.5KPnL+$5.4KAvg12.1¢Current13.4¢438,321.88Shares
YesValue$148PnL+$3Avg21.1¢Current21.5¢689.04Shares
YesValue$22PnL−$0.37Avg31¢Current30.5¢73.51Shares
Nigma Galaxy · YesValue$0PnL−$1.5KAvg24.1¢Current6,393.04Shares
YesValue$0PnL−$5.4KAvg5.3¢Current101,480Shares
YesValue$0PnL−$3.3KAvg3.5¢Current95,265.74Shares
All 7 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet machbut: edge −11.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −110.4%, n=93 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−11.2% over 93 fills); +$16K lifetime P&L, $6.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.